Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s Was in 2012

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Let’s face it, there was a briefest moment when some of us thought Mitt Romney might actually pull of a miracle and beat Barack Obama in 2012. But Obama had several states that he could count on to vote his way, and so he only needed to focus his attention on states where it was really close, and he won. Now Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton find themselves in this same position. Except, turns out the states Clinton is relying on to keep her on a winning trajectory are now suddenly back “in play.” And that makes her situation very tenuous at best. If Trump continues his polling surge, it could be indicative that the firewall has broken, and he is on his way to an impressive victory.

Nate Silver lays it out at FiveThirtyEight: If Trump pulls off New Hampshire, and now that the polls show a dead-heat tie, he just might, then both he and Clinton could end up tying with 269 electoral votes each, if all the other states vote the way we think they might. Of course she might pull of Florida, or another Trump-leaning toss-up and throw him a loss, or any of another scenarios. It’s really a lot of strategy and gamesmanship right now from the campaigns, trying to guess where their rallies and ad buys can give them the most bang for their buck in the final days of the election.

Silver’s point is this: Clinton’s firewall numbers are really weak, and leave open a growing possibility that if public opinion changes even a little bit… she’s in big trouble.

Silver explains: “To illustrate this, let’s compare Clinton’s current position in our polls-plus forecast1 — which gives her a 65 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — to FiveThirtyEight’s final election forecast in 2012, which gave President Obama a 91 percent chance. How could the model be so much more confident in Obama’s chances than in Clinton’s, even though we projected he’d win by 2.5 percentage points nationally and she’s ahead by 2.8? Part of it is because there are far more undecided and third-party voters this year, which could lead to a last-minute swing, or a polling error, and makes the model more cautious.2 But Obama’s and Clinton’s chances of winning the popular vote are relatively similar in our forecasts (76 percent for Clinton now, 86 percent for Obama then) despite that. The difference comes mostly in the Electoral College.”

CLINTON 2016 OBAMA 2012
FOR STATES WHERE DEM. MARGIN IS … TOTAL ELECT. VOTES STATES CLINTON HAS THAT OBAMA DIDN’T TOTAL ELECT. VOTES STATES OBAMA HAD THAT CLINTON DOESN’T
>= -10 points 387 AK SC 399 IN MO MT
>= -9 387 AK SC 399 IN MO MT
>= -8 378 AK GA 362 MT
>= -7 375 GA 359
>= -6 375 AZ GA 348
>= -5 359 AZ 348
>= -4 359 AZ N2 347
>= -3 341 347 IA
>= -2 323 347 IA OH
>= -1 323 NC 332 IA OH
>=_ 0 272 332 FL IA M2 NV OH
>= +1 272 303 IA M2 NV OH
>= +2 272 303 IA M2 NV OH
>= +3 268 CO VA 281 IA M2 NV NH OH
>= +4 239 VA 253 M2 NV PA
>= +5 190 247 M2 MI MN PA WI
>= +6 185 217 M2 MI MN NM
>= +7 183 216 ME MI MN NM
>= +8 183 200 ME MN NM
>= +9 176 190 ME NM OR
>= +10 176 178 ME
Obama’s position in the Electoral College was more secure

 

Silver goes on to say that even though she is doing better than Obama did in some states, unfortunately for her electoral-college needs, it’s in states where she can’t make a difference with the shift. “Instead, many of Clinton’s gains relative to Obama come in states that aren’t competitive at all. Clinton’s margin in our California forecast is bigger than Obama’s was four years ago, for instance. She’s polling better than he is in super-well-educated Maryland and Massachusetts. And then there are her gains in red states. While Clinton’s now very unlikely to win Texas, with Trump having recovered there in recent polls, she’s still likely to make the state a lot closer than Obama did. The same goes for Utah, Alaska and South Carolina. Those could make for some extremely blue maps if Clinton were (unexpectedly at this point) to win in a landslide. But if she’s trading voters in Ohio and Iowa for those in Texas and Maryland, she’s not getting the better side of the deal.”

What this means is that Trump has a MUCH better chance of winning than Romney did. What we need to do to make sure Trump wins, is GET OUT AND VOTE on Tuesday. It is so close, in so many places, that for the first time in a long time, EVERY VOTE MATTERS. And especially if she’s going to cheat and try to steal. We need to have so many votes she just can’t.
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Categories: Analysis

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