Trump Headed For Win Says Professor Who Hasn’t Been Wrong in 30 Years

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As we crawl closer to election day, more and more people are chiming in on who they think will be the next President of the United States. One man who thinks he knows the answer is professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984. According to the Washington Post, he uses a series of true-or-false questions, that he calls his “Keys to the White House” to decide who will be the winner, and right now, those keys are strongly pointing to Donald Trump. Lichtman is so sure of it, he published a book about how his methodology and how he knows it’s going to be Trump. You can find it right here: Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016.

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Basically, the keys revolve around “who has the largest mandate?” — meaning which party holds the most seats in Congress? Did either candidate have an uncontested primary? Is there a serious third party candidate; “What is the economic/political situation” — how are we on short- and long-term economy issues? Has either party’s incumbents made significant changes to US policy for better or worse? Are there significant cultural/social issues?; And charisma. Which candidate is the most charismatic, or has charisma/personality issues.

This site has stated from day one that in the television/internet age, that is actually the MOST important factor: the most charismatic candidate wins, every time, and has since Kennedy.

Based on these factors, Lichtman is sure of Trump’s winning — not only because he has several “yes” answers pointing his way, but also because Hillary has several significant “NO” answers aimed at her, too. That’s not to say that he has his doubts. In fact,as far as Lichtman is concerned, Trump might actually break his system, since Trump is so much more different of a candidate than any he has analyzed in the past. “We’ve never before seen a candidate who’s spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others,” he says. “He’s the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, “Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.,” he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn’t believe it. We’ve never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We’ve never had a candidate before who’s invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We’ve never had a candidate before who’s threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We’ve never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.”

Here is the full list of Lichtman’s keys. Any question that you answer “YES” to improves Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning. Any answer of “NO” leans the election toward Trump. How would you score it? Who is winning according to your score? Let us know in the comments!

  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Categories: Analysis

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