Nate Silver Fesses Up: “How I Missed Trump’s Rising.”


No one who has been known for being so right in politics has been so wrong about Donald Trump than Nate Silver of Silver’s mathematical analysis of polling data has been incredibly accurate ever since he brought his statistical skills from sports to politics several years ago. But Silver denounced Trump as soon as his announced his candidacy, and tried to maintain his steadfast belief that Trump was a flash in the pan even as Trump’s momentum continued growing (We’ve covered Silver’s wrongness before).

Today, he spoke with Peter Kafka at Re/Code and explained just what he got wrong, and why the predictive models have been so inaccurate this year.“We are seeing the Republican Party on the verge of falling apart,” Silver said. “Trump’s candidacy reflects a failure of political institutions: The Republican Party and the media.”

He still denounces Trump, and admits Trump can win the Republican nomination now, but claims his current models only give Trump a 25-30% chance of winning the Presidency outright.

You can listen to the podcast right here:

I like listening to it because I’ve always known Trump was going to get this far, and it feels good to beat someone whose March Madness bracket always does so much better than mine!


Categories: Interviews


  1. Help Wanted: ..An energetic individual with no political flair and no use for campaign donations for the position of the next president of the United States… Must have executive, trade, budget, and negotiating experience. Must be able to work well with others as u will be working with “special” coworkers. Call 1-800- For – Trump. ty

  2. #TRUMP has to be a strong Man!! with all the abuse he is taking from all ends, I don’t blame him for giving it back to them, I wish him the best of luck! I know he’s going to make America Great Again, he is very determent to do so, once he puts his mind to something he will get it done! YOU GO TRUMP!!

  3. Carol & Hilding Ellingson

    They think Trump supporters are all dumb uneducated people too!! And many of us probably have more education and common sense than they do. Oh well, do you think they will admit the truth when TRUMP BECOMES PRESIDENT??

    • Nope… They will never admit to being incorrect. As long as Trump is President, there will be constant battering, misrepresentations and outright lies about America’s successes. Even as employment and wages rise and our nation becomes more successful and secure, they will find fault.

      The following is a very abbreviated list and a peek into the liberal and neocon mindsets.

      The liberal mind is convinced that America is bad. Our success comes from “White Privilege” and that socialism is better than capitalism. They believe a world government is better than nationalism. They want the government to be all powerful and to make their decisions and provide for them. The nanny state is the paradise liberals seek. Not equality of opportunity but equality of outcome and income.

      The so called anti-Trump “conservatives” look at things differently but their goal of defeating and demeaning Trump is the same. They love the power they have and they are scared to death of losing it. They love the money that goes with that power more than they love their children. They think being in a constant state of war, disguised and nation building, is a good thing because it keeps the money moving in their direction. Open borders keeps wages down which maximises their corporate profits. Money, power and influence is the life’s blood of the neocon.

      #DonaldTrump is a clear and present danger to both classes of idiots mentioned above and they will not rest until their objectives are reached.

  4. By golly, that idiot should go back to where he originated. Guess if he had an ounce of brains, he would weigh more. Donald Trump does not take funds from any group. Can’t say that about Madam Hilary!! Lots of foreign moneys in her corner. We stand behind the President to be. You go, Mr. Trump. Don’t waste your energy on fools.

  5. When I started this site, I committed to posting both good and bad stories about Trump, with the intent to always deal with the subject matter objectively and fairly. Of the pundits who oppose Trump, Silver’s one of the few who tries to remain neutral — despite his obvious bias — in that he bases most of his predictions on plain old math, which is hard to slant one way or the other.

    This story explains why he feels his math was so wrong, and in his analysis of that math, his bias comes through — obviously he’s a Liberal — but I think it’s still a good Trump story even if it’s negative, because it gives a insight into how the pundits are thinking and looking at their data from an insider’s perspective.

    That’s why you’ll see a story like this, instead of the constant Salon or Politico Trump hit pieces.

    • David you keep doing what your doing it gives us knowledge into the mindset of these people, we can’t bury our heads in the sand if we do that we will never defeat the never Trump people. Today I learned even though Trump won a state out right gave the RNC gave Cruz delegates he should not have gotten. Now all of a sudden Cruz is ahead of Trump in WI when last week he was 10 points ahead. David most of us appreciate all the work you put into this don’t let a couple of people discourage you.

  6. This interview on re/code is very misleading. This guy, Nate Silver, is NOT objective and obviously dislikes Trump. Trump is NOT inciting violence at his rallies. NOTICE that the violent are NOT the Trump followers, but the hired thugs and misfits from uninvited agitators. Notice that several of the organizations that are protesting were also doing so way BEFORE TRUMP starting running. Notice that Carly was against Ted until she got paid off after she dropped out of the race to then stand at Lying Ted’s side and spew hateful comments against Trump. Get your facts right, you blind guide. You have a PROBLEM with Trump using Twitter? You are way off base dude and back peddling because you are WRONG on your Trump analysis. Why are you saying Trump is winning all the polls when UTAH was rigged? I don’t remember Trump winning Ohio? Get your facts right!

    • I don’t think that was a great story at all…..Nate Silver distorts everything and when someone does that, it does not make a good story.

  7. Little Nate reminds me of Gruber, the guy who told Obama that the American people were too stupid to understand obamacare.

    • All of the Washington Elites remind me of Gruber. They think we are to stupid to realize that Fox lies about their polls and the RNC is trying to derail Trumps campaign. Common sense is far better than IQ. Let me put it this way if John Kasich supposedly wins Hillary in a match up then why does he only have 17% in national polls. Does not make one bit of sense. Do the math


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