Nate Silver Fesses Up: “How I Missed Trump’s Rising.”
No one who has been known for being so right in politics has been so wrong about Donald Trump than Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver’s mathematical analysis of polling data has been incredibly accurate ever since he brought his statistical skills from sports to politics several years ago. But Silver denounced Trump as soon as his announced his candidacy, and tried to maintain his steadfast belief that Trump was a flash in the pan even as Trump’s momentum continued growing (We’ve covered Silver’s wrongness before).
Today, he spoke with Peter Kafka at Re/Code and explained just what he got wrong, and why the predictive models have been so inaccurate this year.“We are seeing the Republican Party on the verge of falling apart,” Silver said. “Trump’s candidacy reflects a failure of political institutions: The Republican Party and the media.”
He still denounces Trump, and admits Trump can win the Republican nomination now, but claims his current models only give Trump a 25-30% chance of winning the Presidency outright.
You can listen to the podcast right here:
I like listening to it because I’ve always known Trump was going to get this far, and it feels good to beat someone whose March Madness bracket always does so much better than mine!