Cheeseheads Torn Between Trump and Cruz
Wisconsin, the land of cheese that doesn’t come from the happy cows of California, is next in line to vote for their Republican candidate of choice. Based on new polling data that came out yesterday, they are torn between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Emerson College’s new poll shows Cruz with 36% and Trump just one point down at 35%. John Kasich has just 19%.
According to the poll’s press release, Cruz and Trump are split evenly with four of eight districts preferring them each. Trump is strong in the western part of the state, and Cruz does well in the east.
The poll also says it appears that Kasich is pulling votes from Cruz as Kasich supporters find Cruz more favorable than Trump, 36% to 27%. Although Trump is roughly even in his favorable/ unfavorable numbers with likely GOP male voters (50/47), he is 10 points under water with GOP women (40/50) and net -28 (33/61) with Independents, who comprise one-third of the Wisconsin electorate. In contrast, Cruz has a +32 favorability with Republican men (64/32), +26 with women (58/32), and +4 (48/44) with Independents.
Other notes from the poll revolve around the selection of Judge Merrick Garland to fill Anontin Scalia’s Supreme Court seat. “In a week when President Obama named Judge Merrick Garland to fill the Supreme Court vacancy left by the death of Antonin Scalia, 9 out of 10 Democratic voters (91%) believe the U.S. Senate should confirm the President’s nominee. This compares to 64% of GOP voters who oppose confirmation. Sentiment follows partisan lines, with Democrats’ favorable/unfavorable numbers tilting heavily toward Garland, 75/5 with 14% undecided, while Republicans lean the other way, 28/39/28.”
The poll also states that almost one-third of Democrats (32%) said health care was the most important issue in the election, 16% cited dissatisfaction with government, and 25% chose “other.” Among GOP voters, 36% listed dissatisfaction with government as their biggest concern followed by health care (22%) and fears about ISIS (12%). The terrorist attack in Brussels occurred on the last day of the poll, so it may not have fully factored into these results.
Better news in the east and the west for Trump, though. New poll out of Pennsylvania puts him in the lead in Pennsylvania, followed closely by Kasich, with Cruz trailing by double digits. And in California, Trump has opened a big 11-point lead, ahead of Cruz 38 to 27. Pennsylvania only offers 17 delegates, but California has a humongous 172, so even if Cruz does manage to win in Wisconsin, Trump should still be okay. For him, it will be that much easier to hit his 1237 required delegates with them than without them.